Our operating environment

 

         An analysis of the

Gold Fields is subject to external strategic
dynamics that inform
decision-making, and influence
our business performance.

3

key strategic themes
– and how
Gold Fields is responding to them

Gold price

Issue

The price of gold continued its volatile recovery during 2017, ending the year at US$1,300/oz, up US$150/oz from the end of December 2016 and US$230/oz from the December 2015 low of US$1,070/oz. Similarly, the average gold price received by Gold Fields increased from US$1,140/oz in 2015 to US$1,241 in 2016 and further to US$1,255/oz in 2017. More than any other variable, the gold price is the key dynamic informing our business strategy.

The traditional investment case for gold as a safe haven asset was called into question as many investors sold their physical gold holdings after the gold price collapsed in 2012. While much of the gold price’s short-term movement is driven by market sentiment and geopolitical developments, an analysis of gold’s supply and demand fundamentals underpins our belief that the gold price should continue to improve over the next few years, though there will undoubtedly be periods of shortterm volatility.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand fell 7% to 4,072 tonnes in 2017, driven by a decrease in investment demand. Exchange traded funds inflows of 203 tonnes, although positive, lagged the 545 tonnes recorded in 2016. Bar and coin demand fell 2% to 771 tonnes on the back of a sharp drop in US retail investment. India and China led a 4% recovery in jewellery demand to 2,136 tonnes, although this remains below historic levels.

Net purchases by central banks and other official institutions continued to slow in 2017, decreasing to 371 tonnes from 390 tonnes in 2016 and 577 tonnes in 2015. However, buying by the Russian and Chinese central banks, while having slowed down, is expected to continue in 2018.

In the long term, gold supply issues will also support a recovery in the gold price, in our view. According to WGC data, 2017 mine production was flat at 3,269 tonnes, after increasing only 1% in 2016. Many gold market analysts are of the view that the industry has reached peak production levels given the limited number of new gold discoveries since the mid-1990s together with the decreased levels of exploration spend in recent years.

Response

Gold Fields does not predict the gold price. We expect volatility and structure the business accordingly.

We maximise value by:

  • Prioritising cash-flow over production volumes
  • Setting targets for each mine at a 15% free cash-flow margin around planning price of US$1,300/oz
  • Eliminating marginal mining
  • Selling non-strategic assets

The Group is therefore in a relatively strong state to weather a sustained lower gold price (at circa US$1,100/oz) and well positioned to capture future upside when the gold price recovers.

During 2017, we invested in the future of our portfolios with a number of new projects, while at the same time continuing to invest in the ongoing development of ore bodies – through proactive near-mine exploration. Our mines avoid ‘high-grading’ – due to the obvious negative impact this would have on the sustainability of their ore bodies – by mining at or below their reserve grade. These growth strategies are strategic essentials that will in no way be compromised by the current price environment.

Global gold demand and supply versus the US$ gold price

 

Total mine supply

 

Social licence to operate

Issue

The nature of the extractive sector means the industry must pay particular attention to its social licence to operate. Unlike other companies, mines are dependent on their mineral deposits and cannot relocate to new locations when facing deteriorating local or national operating environments. Furthermore, many mines’ lives are finite but still can span decades. Mines must be able to navigate complex social, economic and political dynamics over time to avoid conflicts with their host communities. As it is, conflicts between communities and mines have risen sharply over the past decade.

To manage the potential risks, mining companies need to maximise their positive impacts, minimise their negative impacts and make sure that this is communicated to – and recognised by – host community stakeholders. For many decades this was not the case and, apart from a limited number of community jobs and procurement offered by mining companies, these communities saw few benefits. Similarly, taxes and royalties went into the coffers of central governments and rarely found their way back through investment in host communities. It is therefore not surprising that demands from host communities have become more vocal and strident in recent years. Amid widespread use of social media and activism in these communities their demands have also found a global audience.

Response

Global conflicts between
communities and mines

At Gold Fields, a strong social licence to operate is a prerequisite for long-term generation of value for stakeholders. This approach had to be underpinned by:

  • Responsibility: ongoing investment in responsible operational standards to avoid and mitigate negative social and environmental impacts. This includes effective water and environmental management, which has become an increasingly material issue for most mining companies see here
  • Trust: frank, two-way communication, realistic expectation management and visibly honouring commitments builds trust. This includes ongoing engagement on issues such as indigenous rights, employment opportunities and social transformation see here
  • Understanding: investment in communities relies on a thorough understanding of the risks, community needs and community perceptions. Since 2015, Gold Fields has undertaken relational proximity studies at a number of its mines and in 2017 also undertook socio-economic baseline and social return on investment studies at its South Deep mine in South Africa see here
  • Shared Value: the pursuit of mine-level business strategies that enhance the value of our own business and generate positive social impacts. Gold Fields currently has six Shared Value projects around the mines. The most important of these are our enhanced efforts to recruit employees and contractors from host communities and to source goods and services from host companies see here

These initiatives are particularly important in the low gold price context, which has an impact on the Group’s ability to invest in community development projects as well as raising the prospect of job cuts among employees, many of whom hail from host communities.

Regulatory issues

Issue

A sound and certain regulatory and fiscal environment should enable the global gold sector to ride out short-term fluctuations in gold prices and achieve sustained returns over the 15- to 20-year average life of a mining project. In many jurisdictions, however, the legal and tax environment has become less conducive to the long-term viability of the mining sector. Many governments view the industry as an easy target for higher taxes and other fiscal imposts. As a result, the governments’ share of mining revenue has grown at the expense of other stakeholders.

Response

Gold Fields’ total
value creation

Gold Fields believes that the supply and demand fundamentals support a medium- to long-term recovery in the gold price and that the Group’s portfolio approach and strategic and mining expertise should provide returns for gold investors now and in the future.

The question is how the trust gap between mining companies and governments can best be bridged. Gold Fields on its own and in conjunction with its peers in the wider global mining industry, has sought to address this trust gap in a number of ways:

  • The industry is continuing to spread value to a number of stakeholders. Over the past three years, Gold Fields has consistently created between US$2bn and US$3bn in total value annually for our wide range of stakeholders – accounting for around 90% of revenue on average see here
  • Gold Fields is actively promoting host community employment and procurement from host community enterprises in an effort to strengthen its social licence to operate and mitigate any regulatory actions that limit its ability to share the benefits of mining see here

We actively engage with our host governments in Ghana, Australia, Peru and South Africa, either directly or through industry organisations, in addressing the resource nationalism that, we believe, prevents the sector from achieving sustainable growth.