INVESTORS AND MEDIA 
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Folks, I'm an Economist, and our track record at predicting the future has led some to believe that the reason for our existence is to make weather forecasters look good!
Rohitesh Dhawan, President and CEO, ICMM (as delivered)
So, when asked to give you a sense of where I think the mining industry is and where it's headed, I decided to use the tools of the weather forecaster. Let's take the pulse of mining using 5 weather indicators:
1. Temperature: Temperature is essentially a sign of movement - the faster that gas molecules are moving, the higher the temperature.
By that definition, the temperature in the mining industry right now is like a South African highveld Spring morning: warm, and getting hotter. M&A activity is picking up, governments are pouring money and political capital to support projects, and investors - particularly private capital - are coming out of the shadows to soak up the warmth they've long waited for, and thought would never come.
2. Rainfall: The gauge to measure rain is called a disdrometer, and it works by measuring the size of raindrops.
By that measure, current mining conditions are akin to a London misty-shower; constant, tiny rain which, if you’re not careful, wears you down. Unpredictable changes in tax regimes, new regulatory requirements, more reporting obligations, cost inflation, and declining ore grades - individually they're relatively small raindrops, but collectively and over a long enough period, make you pretty miserable!
3. Wind speed: Wind is measured at high frequency (every 0.25 seconds) as it can change quickly.
By that measure, there's currently a gentle wind - like one you might get in the Arabian sea in the winter; enough to help you along, but not strong enough to carry you - and based on our positioning, it's a tailwind. Governments are supporting the sector more than they ever have before, there's increased interest and recognition from downstream users of the role of minerals in their own future-facing commodities, and there's some evidence that the talent shortage is easing. At the same time, expectations of consistent responsible production have never been higher.
4. Wind direction: this is measured by where the wind comes from (its cardinal North), not where it is going.
By that measure, you'd have to say that the Winds are blowing from the West, after years of Easterlies - the kind you might experience in New Zealand. The US and EU are far more engaged in mining than ever before, joining Canada and Australia in a kind of "quad" of Western governments as a counterweight to the dominance of China as a geopolitical force in mining. I'm definitely butchering the analogy at this point, but there are gusts of wind also coming from the Middle East - notably Saudi Arabia, and the big question remains about whether the warmer winds from the West are enough to counter the chill that China is experiencing.
5. Pressure: High pressure means sunshine and warmth, while lower pressure means clouds and rain.
By that measure, there's a high-pressure system developing over the mining industry, like before a Spanish heatwave. With the prospect of a once-in-a-generation increase in the metal intensity of the global economy, there's a frenzy of exploration, development and M&A activity in anticipation of making hay when the sun shines. The risk of overheating though is high, and the industry risks repeating mistakes of the past of paying too much at the wrong time. Also, a sudden drop in pressure leading to a thunderstorm is very possible - this could be an external factor such as a protracted slowdown in China or a major technology breakthrough that changes the material needs of the energy transition - or, god forbid, it could be another major accident or incident in the industry which - for everyone's sake, I hope is not the case.
So, in summary, it's warm but with fine rain showers, a gentle wind from the West, with the risk of thundershowers.
Unless this performance earns me the weather gig at the BBC or ITV, I'll see you back here in 2025 and give you an updated reading!
